Rube Goldberg believed there were two ways to do things – the simple way and the hard way. And that, for some inexplicable reason, many people preferred doing things the hard way. His famous cartoons illustrated the tendency of human beings to exert maximum effort to achieve minimal results.

Notwithstanding the best of intentions, an influx of a mountain of taxpayer cash, the savings available to many low-income seniors, and the hard work of unfairly maligned federal staff, the Medicare drug benefit has become a Rube Goldberg cartoon.

Since passage of the Medicare Modernization Act (MMA) in December 2003, I have been warning about predicable surprises and inevitable consequences. The good news is I am batting 1000 on predictions. The bad news is I am batting 1000 on predictions. If it were not for the fact real people are affected, I’d be happy to sit back and gloat about my prescience. Or perhaps hire a skywriter to paint “I Told You So” high above Security Boulevard.

But truth is, this was easy to see and I was far from alone. While there are many flaws in the design of MMA and lost opportunities in the implementation, the most troubling problems revolve around the chaos and risks of transferring over six million vulnerable dual eligibles from Medicaid drug coverage to Medicare Part D. Virtually all of the other problems of Part D implementation can be ironed out with some more time, experience, and legislative tinkering.